So, I tracked back to one more reference citing the “95-98% of diets fail” figure. It is a letter written by one Aldebaran, a person, I think, who was involved in the organisation known as the Fat Underground in the 60s or 70s. This was a rather radical (in both senses of the word) group, and probably the first step in the size-acceptance movement.

Anyway, Chernin gave the reference to Aldebaran’s letter, and I found it online, here. It appears to be full of interesting information and seething anger, but my main concern here is the 98% statistic. According to this letter, which was written in 1977 (or at least, it was published in State of Mind 5 in 1977…it may have been written earlier) points to information from 1972 and 1966…and I’m kind of not so sure on the credibility of that information either. Let me quote directly:

“In a symposium on obesity held in Washington, D.C. in June of 1972, Dr. Alvan Feinstein of the Yale Medical College, speaking of studies of the effectiveness of weight loss programs, said, ‘The few studies containing long-term results usually show a very low success rate — no more than about one or two percent.’”

Okay, fair enough. This sounds like a pretty good source…but I’d like to know WHICH ‘few studies containing long-term results’ he speaks of. Also, this was in 1972. Things have changed now, so it is possible that there are more effective weight loss programs available now (though I, personally, doubt it.)

The other quoted source from the letter:

“Away from the strictly clinical setting, a Harris Poll in 1966 found the failure rate for weight loss to be 99%; and figures released by diet clubs such as Weight Watchers, comparing numbers of ‘maintenance program’ members with numbers of reducing program members, indicate a similar permanent success rate: one percent or less.”

Now, this would be a very convincing statement (of course, the specific Harris Poll would have to be located, to be sure) except for one thing: companies like Weight Watchers are very well known for their reluctance (as stated by Chernin, Fraser, and Orbach) to give out stats on their success rates. Of course, this WAS in 1966, which is a mixed extenuating circumstance for this source.

Let me explain: first, of course, 1966 was a long time ago, and diet programs have changed in that time. By the same token, in 1966 Weight Watchers (which was only three years old…see Fraser, p. 154) had probably not started protecting their sensitive success data. Weight Watchers was started in 1963 by Jean Nidetch, a New York housewife. It was bought in 1978 by the H.J. Heinz Company. So, presumably, early on, Weight Watchers may not have been as reticent with their numbers as they have been in the last twenty years. So it is possible that, in 1966, they reported their own success rate as being 1%. It’s subject to some doubt, however, plus the fact that 1966 was 36 years ago.